Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
